Looking At the Data: Where Does Early Voting Stand For 24?
STATEWIDE - With polls seemingly all over the place, analysts have been missing nearly every mark in trying to understand where the voting public may stand and how this election may trend. Fortunately, there are hard metrics that can be used to take a sneak peak at where early voting may be trending in key states needed to pull the 270 electoral votes to win for either candidate.
Targetearly, is a website used to track election voting information across the last four years and has correlated data detailing where vote trends have gone and where they may go moving forward. Using data provided by the site to compare where the Democrat lead was in the 2020 election at this point in time and comparing it to the current election as well as adding in the final margins for victory and comparing them to today, we can actually see where some key swing states are trending currently that will be key to either candidate securing a victory. Analysts have been keeping an eye currently on Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, which many believe will be instrumental in deciding which direction the presidential race goes.
Based on available metrics, it would seem as though Donald Trump is leading in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada with early voting with a significant gain in early voting compared to 2020 margins and may be looking to flip Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
However, looking at comparative data from 2020, Trump led in Georgia by a larger margin than he is currently holding a lead now, which means the republican candidate has lost some momentum. Data continues to show that Kamala Harris is winning by a larger margin than Biden did in Michigan and Wisconsin. It is important to note these states now use a ‘modeled party’ system which has the potential to skew data.
Analyzing voter turnout additionally shows surprising trends. Comparative data between 2020 and 2024 shows a much lower Democrat turnout, however Republican turnout is also at a much lower percentage, however it is down by much less. This means there are still significant numbers yet to vote through the early voting process, though historically, registered Democrats have preferred early voting, meaning election day could favor a larger Republican turnout.
If comparative percentages hold true between 2020 and 2024, based on current early voting and voter registration, Donald Trump could comfortably take Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. As many analysts have pointed out, early voting favors Democrats for a variety of reasons, with election day voting favoring Republicans. Pennsylvania is still currently a Democrat lead, but the lead itself is at 63% of where it was in 2020, meaning if Republican turnout on election day maintains at the same level or above of 2020, Trump will take the state.
Lastly, data from Target Early provides an interesting look at where both parties see their current priorities from 2020. With the lack of coronavirus motivating the Democratic base, and the economy widely recognized as the most bottomed out it has been in years, an argument could be made that a Democrat enthusiasm gap exists.
Many analysts have firmly put Ohio in the camp of President Trump, however all of this is dependent on factors such as voter turnout in the state and the level of 'irregularities' that may occur with this election. Ultimately, there are far more organizations and activists watching this coming election and with lawsuits already forming regarding issues with state voting rolls, the coming election in two days may be the most contested in our nations recent history.
