2024 Legislative Maps Hang in the Balance

BY GEORGE CAIN

Redistricting for the 2022 election cycle in Ohio was a long, drawn-out process marked
by partisan stalemates, court interference, and excruciating repetition that fatigued
spectators and officials alike. Despite short-lived success in getting maps adopted for
the 2022 election cycle, there remains a chance that Ohio’s current legislative maps will
have to be redrawn again for 2024.

The issue depends upon an upcoming ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court to determine
whether the state legislatures have exclusive jurisdiction over legislative redistricting, or
if the state courts can have significant sway over how the maps are drawn.
In November 2010, with the political tide turning as Americans continued to struggle
through the doldrums of the Great Recession, the Republican Party achieved sweeping
electoral victories both nationally and statewide in Ohio, fueled largely by the Tea Party
movement. Given that 2010 was also a Census year, it would mean that the
Republican-dominated government in Ohio would have an effective monopoly on how to
redraw both Ohio state legislative maps as well as congressional district maps the
following year. The redistricting process allowed for this, because Ohio law at the time
enabled the principle of “to the winners go the spoils.”
This manifested itself in September 2011, when Republicans passed their redistricting
plans, resulting in some of the most severely gerrymandered maps in U.S. history.
Marcy Kaptur’s “snake on the lake” District 9 stretching from Toledo to Cleveland and
Jim Jordan’s “rubber ducky” District 4 spanning from center-west to northeast Ohio
(duck bill and all) come to mind vividly. These maps went into effect beginning with the
2012 election cycle, and for the entire next decade from 2013 through 2022,
Republicans held supermajorities in both the Ohio House and Ohio Senate, and had a
lock on 12 of the 16 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The extent of this partisan gerrymandering didn’t sit well with a large swath of the
populace. Calls for redistricting reform led to referenda with anti-gerrymandering and
bipartisan elements being placed on the statewide ballot in Ohio. The first measure,
which changed the process for redrawing Ohio state legislative maps, was approved by
Ohio voters with over 71% of the vote in 2015. The second measure, which similarly
changed the process for redrawing congressional district maps, was overwhelmingly
passed by voters with nearly 75% of the vote in 2018. The intent was to reduce the

likelihood of hyper-partisan maps, increase competitiveness, and make the redistricting
process more transparent for the public.

Following the 2020 Census, these reforms would go into full swing as the map-drawing
began again in 2021. Hopes for bipartisanship were quickly dashed as each adopted
map was supported by the Republican majority and opposed by the Democrat minority.
However, the provisions to reduce partisan gerrymandering were still in effect, so the
proposed districts for our representation in both Columbus and Washington, DC were
significantly more competitive than in the previous decade, which tackled the main
controversy. It was finally the dawn of a new era in Ohio.

But then the battles began.

The new sets of maps, both for the Ohio state legislature and for Congress, were
challenged with lawsuits filed mainly by left-leaning activist groups, who alleged that the
new districts did not comply with the new anti-gerrymandering rules and unfairly favored
Republicans. The Ohio Supreme Court agreed in January 2022 by a narrow 4-3
majority, the tiebreaking vote being cast by former Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor. As
a result, all of the maps were invalidated by the Court and had to be redrawn again. Yet
every time the maps were redrawn, legal action was taken to oppose them, and the
entire scenario played out again with a repetition reminiscent of Groundhog Day. The
maps for the U.S. House were rejected twice, and the maps for the Ohio House and
Ohio Senate were rejected a whopping five times.

The rationale of the Court’s 4-3 majority was that the anti-gerrymandering provisions in
the reforms of 2015 and 2018 required a proportionality in the partisan leanings of the
new districts that should reflect the overall voting behaviors of Ohioans over the
previous decade. (This would in theory result in maps that made about 54 percent of the
districts lean Republican and 46 percent lean Democrat, while also giving each party
similar margins of victory.) This tall order became nearly impossible, especially while
having to simultaneously make the new districts compact. The judicial branch thus
crowned itself the de facto governing body that would draw our new maps, resulting in
what was effectively newfound court-ordered gerrymandering— something the voters of
Ohio never asked for and never could have imagined in 2015 and 2018.

In the midst of the Ohio Supreme Court repeatedly striking down maps, candidates for
public office were left confused and had to constantly guess where to campaign, since

their district boundaries (and thus their zones for competition) kept changing. All this
with the May 3 primary date looming.

The deadline for receiving the Court’s blessing was missed for the Ohio state legislative
maps, resulting in the unheard-of scenario of a split primary election, wherein ballots
were cast on May 3 for most primary races, but a second election had to be held on
August 2 for the state legislative races, all at the expense of Ohio taxpayers. (This gave
nominated candidates only three months to effectively campaign.) And the only reason
why a set of maps were selected for the August 2 election was because the federal
courts had to intervene before it was too late.

The congressional map adopted on March 2 did end up getting used in the 2022
election cycle (which gave primary candidates a mere two months to effectively
campaign). However, even this version of the map, while still in effect for the current
two-year Congress, was struck down by the same Court in July 2022 as the result of a
lawsuit filed by the League of Women Voters of Ohio. Therefore, at this point, the
redistricting process will have to be restarted later in 2023 for new sets of maps to be
produced for the 2024 election cycle. (And due to the historical lack of bipartisanship in
this process, any new adopted maps would likely last for only four years instead of until
after the 2030 Census like normal.)

But the battle still isn’t over yet. In October 2022, a group of Republican state legislators led
by Bob Cupp and Matt Huffman appealed the Ohio court’s ruling about the
congressional district maps up to the United States Supreme Court. The main question
being considered is the “Independent State Legislature theory.” In this case, it’s a matter
of whether the state legislature is independent enough from the judiciary to be the sole
arbiter of how district maps should be drawn. The Ohio appeal tags along with pending
landmark case Moore v. Harper, which pertains to a similar appeal filed by Republicans
in North Carolina.

Weary yet?

Hopefully, the U.S. Supreme Court will clear things up by June of this year so that there
will be fewer lawsuits inhibiting the redistricting process moving forward. Regardless, if
future district maps are challenged before the Ohio Supreme Court again anytime soon,
it’s worth noting that the composition of the Court has changed. Chief Justice Maureen
O’Connor was forced into retirement at the end of 2022 due to her age, and the voters
elected Justice Sharon Kennedy, who had consistently voted in favor of the Republican

maps, to take her place. There is now a slightly better chance that future challenges to
proposed maps could be dismissed by the new 4-3 majority.

The fate of Ohio’s election maps hangs in the balance, and more importantly, whether
all of our election districts will be drawn by judges moving forward. All eyes should be
on the U.S. Supreme Court during this upcoming season of case rulings to see how well
the horizontal separation of powers is preserved.